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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 June 17
INDO HBA INDEX SEE LARGEST DROP SINCE FEBRUARY 2017
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal benchmark price decline 9.96% in June, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal de ...
Wednesday, 07 June 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
2017 undoubtedly began with very optimistic signs for the future of the Oil & Gas industry on the back of the Vienna Agreement. OPEC and non-OP ...
Tuesday, 06 June 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS CONTINUE TO TUMBLE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market continued to tumble this past week, as BDI and cape index showed a negative trend week over week.
The Baltic ...
Friday, 02 June 17
THE WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION HAS RESPONDED TO THE WITHDRAWAL OF THE UNITED STATES FROM THE PARIS AGREEMENT
“This decision is the result of a failure to build a genuine coalition on climate action that recognises the role of all technologies, includ ...
Friday, 02 June 17
MOL SIGNS COAL TRANSPORT DEAL WITH THERMAL POWERTECH CORPORATION INDIA LIMITED
MOL Signs Coal Transport Deal with Thermal Powertech Corporation India Limited - Contributing to a Stable Power Supply in India -
Jun ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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