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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 June 17
MARKET INSIGHT - SHIPPING
Looking back at March and April shipping reports when the dry bulk indexes were starting to move up, a number of shipping analysts were stating tha ...
Tuesday, 20 June 17
WORLD ECONOMY SHOWS A MORE OPTIMISTIC TREND
During the past weeks, we have seen many organizations and think tanks show a more optimistic face with regards to the world economy. The World Ban ...
Monday, 19 June 17
PANAMAX RATES HELP BALTIC INDEX TO A POSITIVE MOVE
COALspot.com: The Freight market rose very marginally this past week compared to the previous week, as BDI and Panamax indexes show a positive tren ...
Friday, 16 June 17
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION RISES; UP 24.1% Y/Y
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.5 million short tonn ...
Thursday, 15 June 17
SUPRAMAX NICKEL ORE FROM PHILIPPINES TO S. CHINA PAYING AROUND MID $10000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Market looked more promising from both sides of the basins. Within Atlantic USG returned with tick better rates seen as tonnage kept tig ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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