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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 June 17
WORLD COAL PRODUCTION FELL BY 6.2%, THE LARGEST ANNUAL DECLINE ON RECORD - BP
COALspot.com: The 2017 edition of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, shows global energy markets continuing to undergo long-term changes as ...
Wednesday, 14 June 17
HANDYSIZES AND PANAMAXES ENJOY THE TIGHTEST SUPPLY - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
The dry and the tanker shipping segments have dissimilar exposure to supply-driven opportunity (or risk). While the vintage (i.e., over 15 years ol ...
Tuesday, 13 June 17
THE TANKER FREIGHT MARKET IS STILL UNDER PRESSURE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
News of U.S. inventory decline has hit the market by surprise with prices of the commodity showing some quick revival as OPEC continues to push wit ...
Monday, 12 June 17
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX TOOK A POSITIVE STEP
COALspot.com: The Freight market incline this past week compared to the previous week, as BDI, Cape and Panamax indexes show a positive trend week ...
Friday, 09 June 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT WAS FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15 million short tonnes ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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