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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 04 April 17
THE IRON ORE HAS BEEN ABLE TO KEEP ITS GROWTH PATH FAIRLY WELL; THERE IS STILL ONE PART OF THE WORLD THAT IS STILL HEAVILY COMMITTED TO COAL
With the close of March having let us with a very positive after taste and having witnessed near the end of the month the Baltic Dry Index at its h ...
Monday, 03 April 17
WORLD COAL TRADE STABLE IN 2016: DEMAND SHIFTS TO SOUTH-EAST ASIA - ASSOCARBONI
ASSOCARBONI: Coal confirmed as the leading fuel for electricity generation, accounting for 40% of overall production in 2016.
World coal trade ...
Monday, 03 April 17
DRY BULK RATES CONTINUING TO FIRMING UP
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continuing to firming up. Baltic Panamax Index rose 12.81 percent week over week.
The Baltic Exchang ...
Friday, 31 March 17
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.5 million short tons ...
Thursday, 30 March 17
WHERE AN AGREEMENT FAILS TO DELIVER - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Watson Farley & Williams acted for MRI Trading AG in a leading case on ‘agreements to agree’ that was fin ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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