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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 24 March 17
U.S COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATE DECLINE 4.4% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.1 million short tons ...
Thursday, 23 March 17
CAPESIZE: TAKING A BREATHER AFTER RALLYING - BUT OUTLOOK FOR WEEKS TO COME NOT SCARY - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
In the Pacific the market seems somewhat slower this week, although healthy rates still being achieved said Fearnleys in its latest week ...
Thursday, 23 March 17
KOREA MIDLAND POWER COMPANY LIMITED INVITES BIDS FOR TOTAL 4.77 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR ITS BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 2,090,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal f ...
Wednesday, 22 March 17
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS UNDOUBTEDLY REBOUNDED SINCE THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The Dry Bulk market has undoubtedly rebounded since the same period last year and currently enjoys healthier freight rates. The positive reversal i ...
Tuesday, 21 March 17
DESPITE THE CHALLENGING MARKET SITUATION IN 2016 THE DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR HAS ACHIEVED A NET PROFIT OF US$37 MILLION
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. has announced its financial results for the period ended December 31, 2016.
Despite challenging marke ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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