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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 24 February 17
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATED AT 16.8 MMST - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 23 February 17
ULTRA SUPRAMAX: INDONESIA TO INDIA IS GETTING AROUND $10-11K BASIS SINGAPORE DELIVERY
Supramax
The week started off quietly in the Atlantic with more activity in the Pacific basin.
According to Fearnleys weekly report, frontha ...
Wednesday, 22 February 17
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
In 2016 a session of the IMO committee in London, set the new prerequisites effective from January 2020, which will necessitate global Sulphur cont ...
Tuesday, 21 February 17
INDIA'S JANUARY COAL IMPORTS DECLINE 21.7 PERCENT YEAR -ON-YEAR TO 14.31 MT - PTI
Coal imports declined by 21.7 per cent to 14.31 million tonnes in January as the power utilities did not lift much fuel due to abundant stock avail ...
Tuesday, 21 February 17
CHINESE EXPORTS SHOWED A YEAR-ON-YEAR RISE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN TEN MONTHS; S. KOREA'S EXPORTS UP FOR PAST THREE MONTHS IN A ROW - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have started to some sparks of life in the commodities markets these past weeks, with prices having shown a strong push during the past couple o ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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