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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 15 February 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Looking at the state of the Dry Bulk market exactly a year ago, there is no doubt that there is a significant improvement and despite the fact that ...
Tuesday, 14 February 17
OPTIMISM HAS STARTED TO SLOWLY FLOW BACK INTO THE DRY BULK MARKET - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Optimism has started to slowly flow back into the dry bulk market, with many in the market showing renewed optimism as the Pacific basin starts to ...
Monday, 13 February 17
COMBINED COAL SALES OF BUMI RESOURCES ROSE TO 87.7 MILLION TONS IN FY'16; UP 10.6 PERCENT Y/Y
COALspot.com: Combined Coal Sales of Bumi Resources rose to 87.7 million tons in FY’16 compared with 79.3 million tons in FY’15. ...
Monday, 13 February 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO TUMBLE IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continued its downfall in all segments except Panamax for the week ending 10 February 2017.
The Balt ...
Friday, 10 February 17
U.S. COAL OUTPUT IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE DECLINED BY 158 MMST IN 2016 TO 739 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17 million short tons ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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