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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 27 January 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT RISES FOR THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.8 million short ton ...
Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made ...
Tuesday, 24 January 17
MARKET UPDATE - ALLIED
This week at the World Economic Forum in the Swiss resort of Davos we had a historic first via the attendance and speech given by China’s pre ...
Monday, 23 January 17
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED $AU 15.279 BILLION WORTH OF 161.399 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 2016
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,453.1 M ...
Monday, 23 January 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET DID NOT CHANGE MUCH AND WAS ALMOST AT SAME LEVELS AS LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market did not change much and was almost at same levels as last week.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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