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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 15 January 18
QUEENSLAND SHIPPED 210.8 MT OF COAL IN 2017, DOWN 5% YOY QUEENSLAND RESOURCES COUNCIL
Queensland's coal exports over the 12 months reached 210.8 mt which is down 10 mt or 5 per cent from the previous year’s record of 220.8 ...
Thursday, 11 January 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA COAL ROUNDS FIXING AT AROUND $10K - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
USG rates improved both for backhaul and fronthaul, Ultras from USG to Japan receiving around $26k daily while supras 1-2k less for same ...
Wednesday, 10 January 18
2018: IT IS PROJECTED, THE SHIPBUILDERS WILL DELIVER FOUR HUNDRED FORTY NEW VESSELS IN 2018
Headlines from IMF's 2017 – World Economic Outlook:
January 2017 - “After a lacklustre outturn in 2016, economic activity is p ...
Tuesday, 09 January 18
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL REFERENCE PRICE UP IN JANUARY
COALspot.com: the Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) rose 1.60 per cent in January 2018, the latest ministerial decree showed.
The benchma ...
Friday, 05 January 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 32.4% PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.5 million short tons ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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