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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 05 January 18
COAL DEMAND TO REMAIN FLAT TO 2022, RESULTING IN A DECADE OF STAGNATION - IEA
Global demand for coal should remain nearly flat between 2017 and 2022, resulting in a decade of stagnation for coal consumption, according to the ...
Thursday, 04 January 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA WERE FIXED AT AROUND $8K DAILY; DOWN AROUND 27% WOW
Supramax
Q1 kicked off with an usual standby with all counterparts waiting for the market to take direction. Further holidays in East-Europe adde ...
Wednesday, 03 January 18
KOMIPO TO BUY 130K TONS OF MIN. 5700 NAR COAL FOR FEB 2018 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 130k Metric Tons of min. 5700 NAR coal to be burnt a ...
Friday, 29 December 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED A$ 1.527 BILLION WORTH OF 12.65 MT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports, and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1527.6 M ...
Friday, 29 December 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY UP FOR THE WEEK ENDING 23 DEC, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.5 million short tons ...
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Showing 1836 to 1840 news of total 6871 |
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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