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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 27 December 17
SULPHUR EMISSIONS: THE OUTSTANDING CHALLENGES - UK P&I CLUB
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has been working to reduce the harmful impacts of shipping on the environment.
It adopted Annex ...
Friday, 22 December 17
COAL INDIA BOARD CLEARS THE WAY FOR SCHEME FOR HARNESSING AND ALLOCATING KOYALA (COAL) TRANSPARENTLY IN INDIA - PIB
The Coal India Limited (CIL) Board cleared the decks for signing of Fuel Supply Agreement (FSA), for supply of coal.
According to Press Inform ...
Friday, 22 December 17
WILL THE DRY BULK INDUSTRY BECOME PROFITABLE IN 2018? - PETER SAND, BIMCO
As the dry bulk fleet is already expected to grow at a pace that matches demand growth expected in 2019, focus must be on improving the fundamental ...
Friday, 22 December 17
ESTIMATED U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT SLIPS SLIGHTLY - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million short tons ...
Thursday, 21 December 17
COAL CONSUMPTION DROPS AS GAS AND RENEWABLES CHEW INTO TRADITIONAL MARKETS - BABS MCHUGH
"The share of coal in the global energy mix is forecast to decline from 27 per cent last year to 26 per cent in 2022"
Global demand ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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