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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 December 17
REFINED COAL HAS MADE UP NEARLY ONE-FIFTH OF COAL-FIRED POWER GENERATION SO FAR IN 2017 - EIA
The U.S. power sector consumption of coal is increasingly shifting to refined coal, even as coal-fired electricity generation decreases. Use of ref ...
Wednesday, 13 December 17
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL LOOKED RELATIVELY ROBUST - DANIEL HYNES
Coal prices were a touch higher. Demand for thermal coal looked relatively robust, after reports continued to surface that Chinese authorities have ...
Wednesday, 13 December 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
As another year is coming to an end and much has been already written about the positive reversal in the dry bulk market, we think it is interestin ...
Monday, 11 December 17
INDIA CONSUMERS ARE SAID TO BE DESPERATELY SEEKING CARGOES - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were stronger, as strong demand outside China continues to spur buying said Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ.
Acc ...
Monday, 11 December 17
CAPESIZE FFA MARKET LOOKING PROMISING MOVING FORWARD - FIS
Capesize
Another very promising day for the big ships as rates continued to firm in both oceans and the paper market ate into the backwardation s ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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