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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 January 18
OIL MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
Brent oil futures hit a three year high on January 16th touching around USD 70.30 before falling back down to around USD 68.60 at the Time of this ...
Friday, 19 January 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT WAS 13.5 MMST FOR THE WEEK ENDING JANUARY 13, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.5 million short tons ...
Thursday, 18 January 18
WORLD TRADE IN HARD COAL RISES BY 1.5% IN 2017 - KOHLENIMPORTEURE
Press Release: World Trade in Hard Coal Rises by 1.5% in 2017. German Steam Coal Imports Plummet by 15% in 2017 – in Contrast to Other Sector ...
Wednesday, 17 January 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we are now well into the first month of 2018, the mood across the entire offshore industry undeniably remains rather positive following the oil ...
Monday, 15 January 18
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO WEAK THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The daily average earnings for Supramax, for the route Indonesia to India passing through Singapore has stayed firm, week over week, ...
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Showing 1826 to 1830 news of total 6871 |
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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