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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure ...
Tuesday, 06 February 18
THE FUNDAMENTALS FOR INDIAN COAL IMPORTS CONTINUE TO LOOK PROMISING - TORVALD KLAVENESS
Back in August we reported that the fundamentals impacting Indian coal imports looked more promising.
Trade flow data today implies 17.4Mt of ...
Monday, 05 February 18
SUPRAMAX : INDONESIA TO INDIA PASSING THROUGH SINGAPORE HAS SOFTENED
COALspot.com: The daily average earnings for Supramax, for the route Indonesia to India passing through Singapore has softened, week over week, own ...
Friday, 02 February 18
SUPRAMAX : INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIPS ARE PAYING AROUND MID USD 9000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Rather quiet week within Atl, specially Continent due to lack of cargoes.
According to Fearnleys Weekly - Dry bulk report published ...
Friday, 02 February 18
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 54.1 MMST, DOWN 8.8% YOY - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.3 million short tons ...
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Showing 1816 to 1820 news of total 6871 |
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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