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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the cartel’s plan to manipulate the oil price, money managers’ positions reverse and finally, USA versus Iran! Stay tuned to find out more about the intriguing action taking place in the oil market.
Goliath. When the first production cut agreement was agreed by OPEC oil producers last November, WTI crude surged 12% within a trading week noting its biggest gains in 6 years. On the contrary, the agreement during last week’s meeting in Vienna, to extend the cut for another nine months failed to cause a rally in oil prices. Instead, both WTI and the global benchmark Brent slid on the 25th of May signaling not only that the extension was already priced in the commodity’s price but also further pessimism from the investing community. It seems that the mighty cartel will need more than announcements to meet its target price of $60/bbl. But guess who does stand in its way.
David. That’s correct. US shale oil producers have more than doubled their operating rigs from the previous year’s lowest point. Amid the highest production levels since August 2015, inventories hitting record numbers on March 2017 and new technologies that allow for a lower breakeven point in operating expenses, shale producers did not stay idle. But what is probably the best countermeasure that they took lies in the financial markets. Taking advantage of the price rally that occurred from announcements that the cartel traditionally uses to stimulate the market, they hedged their physical positions when the oil price has hit more than $50/bbl, a point assuring them profitability. So effectively, OPEC’s strategy proved somewhat unsuccessful as it helped save the sector it originally tried to eliminate!
Big Short. Another notable player sitting in the oil market’s table is smart money. Money managers’ positions demonstrate a rather bearish picture as bets against oil in both futures and options markets hit record highs. Moreover, consecutive cuts in net-long positions in WTI and Brent holdings, further ascertains that hedge funds are no longer overinvested in the oil market. I know what you are thinking. Rallies in oil price did happen. Well, they sure did; nevertheless, somewhere between behavioral sentiment, purely short-term technical trading and covering of short positions none of these rallies have proved to be a persistent upward trend.
Uncle Sam. Despite Iran’s compliance with the terms of the nuclear deal, possibility that current US government will not proceed to lift sanctions just yet is still hovering around. This way, prices for domestic crude as well as North Sea’s Brent will most probably be boosted. In regards though to the oil-derived shipping market, less production in the Middle-East region may suggest a substitution with Nigerian crude, which results in more ton-miles of transportation as major importers are located in the Far East. However, this reduction in heavier crude production suggests that refineries will produce less fuel oil in favor of higher distillate products potentially affecting this way the trading patterns between the dirty and clean tanker market segments. So, as you may have guessed, the impact that president Trump’s policies will have on trump shipping is not easy to assess.
So, what have we learnt so far? Well, if price stability and sustainable growth of the market is the focus, then OPEC’s best option could be adjusting its strategy instead of expecting global demand to pick up. Otherwise, if its influence is not so strong anymore, maybe -and this is just a thought- it needs to look west for some new allies.
By Konstantinos Kakavitsas
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 01 February 18
RISING US OIL EXPORTS, MARKET DISRUPTION, BRENT-WTI SPREAD - WOOD MACKENZIE
What will US tight oil growth do to crude markets? The build-up in volumes early this decade led to a supply glut that undermined prices in 2014.
...
Wednesday, 31 January 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
Days before the celebrations of the Lunar New Year, the dry bulk market seems to be holding well, against negative predictions. Period numbers repo ...
Monday, 29 January 18
BALTIC INDEX GAINS ON STRONGER BIG VESSEL ACTIVITY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week and ending on a positive note week ov ...
Monday, 29 January 18
U.S.WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 8.7% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.6 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 24 January 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Since the beginning of the New Year we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards, which nonetheless seems to have no effect at ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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