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Wednesday, 17 May 17
THE CHINESE IMPORTS ARE A BAROMETER FOR VESSEL UTILIZATION - INTERMODAL
 According to economic data, China imports increased year-on-year 38% in February, 20% in March – which is approximately US$160-170b - whilst in April they failed reaching market estimates which were at 18% rise and remained at 12% rise year-on-year to USD 142b. Maybe this explains the softening in the freight markets experienced over the past month.
The main drivers are coal and lignite, iron ore, and soybeans for the dry and crude and refined oil for the wet sector. So, being one of the biggest consumers of commodities in the world, it's quite evident that Chinese imports are a barometer for vessel utilization and any surges thereof are very closely correlated with the freight market. For the record, the imports reached their five-years low in Q1 2016 – well below US$100b - and before that in Q3 2014, just like the Baltic Dry Index.
Looking forward at forecasts in order to see how the shipping market will also unfold, analysts’ expectations and econometric models are for imports in China to relatively recede in the second half of this year to US$130b, before they pick up again in Q1 2018 and at around $142b in 12 months’ time. In the long-term, China imports are projected to trend around $168b in 2020.
If the models and analysts are right – are they ever?? - we expect, within the foreseeable future, demand to fluctuate around today's levels. Any spikes, dips or seasonality either from China or other markets will be of course reflected in freight rates but it should be temporary.
At the same time, the supply has been relatively restrained, compared to last year the fleet >20,000dwt is bigger by just 280 vessels and this is another one of the reasons that we 'felt' the demand spikes earlier in the year. Furthermore, although in 2017 we have notably much less demolition activity and reactivation of laid-up vessels, this time last year and for the rest of 2016 only we had 662 dry bulkers in the order book, whilst today the entire dry order book for the next three years is at 720 vessels and the order book-to-fleet ratio at 7% for most of the sub-sectors. There are substantially less newbuilding deliveries expected for the rest of 2017, slightly more than 400 vessels and will probably be even less if we consider slippage and non-yet-registered cancellations. To-date the fleet >20,000dwt has grown by almost 140 vessels.
So, the multi-million dollar question remains the same. Is it now a good entry point to invest in shipping before prices move further north or should we expect a correction in prices? Well the common consensus is that current asset prices reflect better last month's freight market.
This is something normal since there has always been a lag between the two variables. If analysts are right for softer demand from China in H2 2017 and there is no major event to affect demand positively, we should see a correction in prices. However, on top of the times when analysts and econometric models were wrong, with the expectation of a better market there were also many instances where the SnP market had no time to correct before the freight market surged higher.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 04 May 17
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL ROUNDS LEVELS WITH DELIVERY CHINA IS TRADING AROUND LOW $6K, TRIP BACK TO CHINA
Supramax
The short week brought weaker rates across all routes. Supras from USG to Japan were fixed around $19-20 k daily and from ECSA to ECI $1 ...
Wednesday, 03 May 17
MALAYSIA SEEMS AS BIGGEST ADARO COAL IMPORTER IN Q1' 17
COALspot.com: In 1Q17, 30% of Adaro's sales went to Indonesia, the data from unaudited consolidated financial statement shows.
Malaysia ca ...
Wednesday, 03 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
The overall performance of each sector within the edible oil markets has remained poor for the past weeks. Apart from the veg oil exports fro ...
Tuesday, 02 May 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUE TO SLUMP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market continues to slump this past week, as all segments except Handy Size show a negative downward trend.
The Balt ...
Friday, 28 April 17
U.S PRODUCED LESS COAL THIS PAST WEEK COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14 million short tons ( ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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