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Wednesday, 17 May 17
THE CHINESE IMPORTS ARE A BAROMETER FOR VESSEL UTILIZATION - INTERMODAL
 According to economic data, China imports increased year-on-year 38% in February, 20% in March – which is approximately US$160-170b - whilst in April they failed reaching market estimates which were at 18% rise and remained at 12% rise year-on-year to USD 142b. Maybe this explains the softening in the freight markets experienced over the past month.
The main drivers are coal and lignite, iron ore, and soybeans for the dry and crude and refined oil for the wet sector. So, being one of the biggest consumers of commodities in the world, it's quite evident that Chinese imports are a barometer for vessel utilization and any surges thereof are very closely correlated with the freight market. For the record, the imports reached their five-years low in Q1 2016 – well below US$100b - and before that in Q3 2014, just like the Baltic Dry Index.
Looking forward at forecasts in order to see how the shipping market will also unfold, analysts’ expectations and econometric models are for imports in China to relatively recede in the second half of this year to US$130b, before they pick up again in Q1 2018 and at around $142b in 12 months’ time. In the long-term, China imports are projected to trend around $168b in 2020.
If the models and analysts are right – are they ever?? - we expect, within the foreseeable future, demand to fluctuate around today's levels. Any spikes, dips or seasonality either from China or other markets will be of course reflected in freight rates but it should be temporary.
At the same time, the supply has been relatively restrained, compared to last year the fleet >20,000dwt is bigger by just 280 vessels and this is another one of the reasons that we 'felt' the demand spikes earlier in the year. Furthermore, although in 2017 we have notably much less demolition activity and reactivation of laid-up vessels, this time last year and for the rest of 2016 only we had 662 dry bulkers in the order book, whilst today the entire dry order book for the next three years is at 720 vessels and the order book-to-fleet ratio at 7% for most of the sub-sectors. There are substantially less newbuilding deliveries expected for the rest of 2017, slightly more than 400 vessels and will probably be even less if we consider slippage and non-yet-registered cancellations. To-date the fleet >20,000dwt has grown by almost 140 vessels.
So, the multi-million dollar question remains the same. Is it now a good entry point to invest in shipping before prices move further north or should we expect a correction in prices? Well the common consensus is that current asset prices reflect better last month's freight market.
This is something normal since there has always been a lag between the two variables. If analysts are right for softer demand from China in H2 2017 and there is no major event to affect demand positively, we should see a correction in prices. However, on top of the times when analysts and econometric models were wrong, with the expectation of a better market there were also many instances where the SnP market had no time to correct before the freight market surged higher.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 April 17
DELTA DUNIA RECORDED $24 MILLION NET PROFIT FOR FIRST QUARTER OF 2017; UP 700% Y/Y
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. has announced its financial results for the first quarter of 2017 yesterday. According to the ...
Thursday, 27 April 17
PACIFIC IS SOFTENING WITH MORE TONNAGE OPENING AND LESS COAL ORDERS AROUND - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Relatively slow week, with both basins showing signs of cooling down. Although grain cargoes out ECSA and ECCA on Ultras still delivered ...
Wednesday, 26 April 17
IRON ORE PRICES HAVE BEEN ON A ROLLERCOASTER RIDE OVER THE LAST MONTH - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Iron ore prices have been on a rollercoaster ride over the last month. Prices started the year on a very positive note, surging up to their highest ...
Tuesday, 25 April 17
FIONA POUNDS: VALID TENDER OF NOTICE OF READINESS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the recent English High Court case of MV Arundel Castle1, the Judge ruled that a vessel, that could not immediately pr ...
Tuesday, 25 April 17
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
Over the weekend we witnessed a second win over the rising populism that has become present in global politics since last summer, Allied shipping s ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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