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Wednesday, 17 May 17
THE CHINESE IMPORTS ARE A BAROMETER FOR VESSEL UTILIZATION - INTERMODAL
 According to economic data, China imports increased year-on-year 38% in February, 20% in March – which is approximately US$160-170b - whilst in April they failed reaching market estimates which were at 18% rise and remained at 12% rise year-on-year to USD 142b. Maybe this explains the softening in the freight markets experienced over the past month.
The main drivers are coal and lignite, iron ore, and soybeans for the dry and crude and refined oil for the wet sector. So, being one of the biggest consumers of commodities in the world, it's quite evident that Chinese imports are a barometer for vessel utilization and any surges thereof are very closely correlated with the freight market. For the record, the imports reached their five-years low in Q1 2016 – well below US$100b - and before that in Q3 2014, just like the Baltic Dry Index.
Looking forward at forecasts in order to see how the shipping market will also unfold, analysts’ expectations and econometric models are for imports in China to relatively recede in the second half of this year to US$130b, before they pick up again in Q1 2018 and at around $142b in 12 months’ time. In the long-term, China imports are projected to trend around $168b in 2020.
If the models and analysts are right – are they ever?? - we expect, within the foreseeable future, demand to fluctuate around today's levels. Any spikes, dips or seasonality either from China or other markets will be of course reflected in freight rates but it should be temporary.
At the same time, the supply has been relatively restrained, compared to last year the fleet >20,000dwt is bigger by just 280 vessels and this is another one of the reasons that we 'felt' the demand spikes earlier in the year. Furthermore, although in 2017 we have notably much less demolition activity and reactivation of laid-up vessels, this time last year and for the rest of 2016 only we had 662 dry bulkers in the order book, whilst today the entire dry order book for the next three years is at 720 vessels and the order book-to-fleet ratio at 7% for most of the sub-sectors. There are substantially less newbuilding deliveries expected for the rest of 2017, slightly more than 400 vessels and will probably be even less if we consider slippage and non-yet-registered cancellations. To-date the fleet >20,000dwt has grown by almost 140 vessels.
So, the multi-million dollar question remains the same. Is it now a good entry point to invest in shipping before prices move further north or should we expect a correction in prices? Well the common consensus is that current asset prices reflect better last month's freight market.
This is something normal since there has always been a lag between the two variables. If analysts are right for softer demand from China in H2 2017 and there is no major event to affect demand positively, we should see a correction in prices. However, on top of the times when analysts and econometric models were wrong, with the expectation of a better market there were also many instances where the SnP market had no time to correct before the freight market surged higher.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 April 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS DOWN WEEK OVER WEEK EXCEPT FOR HANDYSIZE SEGMENT
COALspot.com: The Freight market was fell, week over a week as all segments show a negative downward trend except Handy Size segment this past week ...
Friday, 21 April 17
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ON THE UP, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.9 million short ton ...
Thursday, 20 April 17
SHIPPING POOLS: DON'T JUST DIVE IN - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping pools can be an attractive option for ship owners and operators, particularly in difficult markets and during periods of economic uncertai ...
Thursday, 20 April 17
THE DRY BULK MARKET IS STILL ON ITS UPWARD MOMENTUM - ALLIED SHIPPING
Having gone through the first quarter of the year and with the Easter break having no come and gone, it seems as though the dry bulk market is stil ...
Thursday, 20 April 17
CHINA'S IMPORT OF IRON ORE TO PROPEL DRY BULK SHIPPING DEMAND IN 2017 - PETER SAND
China's import of iron ore will continue to be a key driver for the demand growth in 2017 for the dry bulk shipping industry, alongside shippin ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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