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Wednesday, 17 May 17
THE CHINESE IMPORTS ARE A BAROMETER FOR VESSEL UTILIZATION - INTERMODAL
 According to economic data, China imports increased year-on-year 38% in February, 20% in March – which is approximately US$160-170b - whilst in April they failed reaching market estimates which were at 18% rise and remained at 12% rise year-on-year to USD 142b. Maybe this explains the softening in the freight markets experienced over the past month.
The main drivers are coal and lignite, iron ore, and soybeans for the dry and crude and refined oil for the wet sector. So, being one of the biggest consumers of commodities in the world, it's quite evident that Chinese imports are a barometer for vessel utilization and any surges thereof are very closely correlated with the freight market. For the record, the imports reached their five-years low in Q1 2016 – well below US$100b - and before that in Q3 2014, just like the Baltic Dry Index.
Looking forward at forecasts in order to see how the shipping market will also unfold, analysts’ expectations and econometric models are for imports in China to relatively recede in the second half of this year to US$130b, before they pick up again in Q1 2018 and at around $142b in 12 months’ time. In the long-term, China imports are projected to trend around $168b in 2020.
If the models and analysts are right – are they ever?? - we expect, within the foreseeable future, demand to fluctuate around today's levels. Any spikes, dips or seasonality either from China or other markets will be of course reflected in freight rates but it should be temporary.
At the same time, the supply has been relatively restrained, compared to last year the fleet >20,000dwt is bigger by just 280 vessels and this is another one of the reasons that we 'felt' the demand spikes earlier in the year. Furthermore, although in 2017 we have notably much less demolition activity and reactivation of laid-up vessels, this time last year and for the rest of 2016 only we had 662 dry bulkers in the order book, whilst today the entire dry order book for the next three years is at 720 vessels and the order book-to-fleet ratio at 7% for most of the sub-sectors. There are substantially less newbuilding deliveries expected for the rest of 2017, slightly more than 400 vessels and will probably be even less if we consider slippage and non-yet-registered cancellations. To-date the fleet >20,000dwt has grown by almost 140 vessels.
So, the multi-million dollar question remains the same. Is it now a good entry point to invest in shipping before prices move further north or should we expect a correction in prices? Well the common consensus is that current asset prices reflect better last month's freight market.
This is something normal since there has always been a lag between the two variables. If analysts are right for softer demand from China in H2 2017 and there is no major event to affect demand positively, we should see a correction in prices. However, on top of the times when analysts and econometric models were wrong, with the expectation of a better market there were also many instances where the SnP market had no time to correct before the freight market surged higher.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Up until a few weeks ago, demo deals were being concluded at just a fraction below $400/ldt. Last time we saw demo prices around that level was in ...
Tuesday, 09 May 17
DRY BULK TRADE IS STILL HEAVILY RELIANT ON CHINA - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have seen an overall cool down in the dry bulk and tanker markets over the final two weeks of April, sparking worries amongst ship-owners that t ...
Monday, 08 May 17
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH IN MAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian government declared coal benchmark price rose in May, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indonesian therm ...
Monday, 08 May 17
OCEAN BULK CARGO RATES FALL FURTHER THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market continues to slump this past week, with all segments show a negative downward trend week over week.
The Balti ...
Monday, 08 May 17
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ON THE DOWN - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.8 million short tons ...
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Showing 2051 to 2055 news of total 6871 |
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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