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Wednesday, 17 May 17
THE CHINESE IMPORTS ARE A BAROMETER FOR VESSEL UTILIZATION - INTERMODAL
 According to economic data, China imports increased year-on-year 38% in February, 20% in March – which is approximately US$160-170b - whilst in April they failed reaching market estimates which were at 18% rise and remained at 12% rise year-on-year to USD 142b. Maybe this explains the softening in the freight markets experienced over the past month.
The main drivers are coal and lignite, iron ore, and soybeans for the dry and crude and refined oil for the wet sector. So, being one of the biggest consumers of commodities in the world, it's quite evident that Chinese imports are a barometer for vessel utilization and any surges thereof are very closely correlated with the freight market. For the record, the imports reached their five-years low in Q1 2016 – well below US$100b - and before that in Q3 2014, just like the Baltic Dry Index.
Looking forward at forecasts in order to see how the shipping market will also unfold, analysts’ expectations and econometric models are for imports in China to relatively recede in the second half of this year to US$130b, before they pick up again in Q1 2018 and at around $142b in 12 months’ time. In the long-term, China imports are projected to trend around $168b in 2020.
If the models and analysts are right – are they ever?? - we expect, within the foreseeable future, demand to fluctuate around today's levels. Any spikes, dips or seasonality either from China or other markets will be of course reflected in freight rates but it should be temporary.
At the same time, the supply has been relatively restrained, compared to last year the fleet >20,000dwt is bigger by just 280 vessels and this is another one of the reasons that we 'felt' the demand spikes earlier in the year. Furthermore, although in 2017 we have notably much less demolition activity and reactivation of laid-up vessels, this time last year and for the rest of 2016 only we had 662 dry bulkers in the order book, whilst today the entire dry order book for the next three years is at 720 vessels and the order book-to-fleet ratio at 7% for most of the sub-sectors. There are substantially less newbuilding deliveries expected for the rest of 2017, slightly more than 400 vessels and will probably be even less if we consider slippage and non-yet-registered cancellations. To-date the fleet >20,000dwt has grown by almost 140 vessels.
So, the multi-million dollar question remains the same. Is it now a good entry point to invest in shipping before prices move further north or should we expect a correction in prices? Well the common consensus is that current asset prices reflect better last month's freight market.
This is something normal since there has always been a lag between the two variables. If analysts are right for softer demand from China in H2 2017 and there is no major event to affect demand positively, we should see a correction in prices. However, on top of the times when analysts and econometric models were wrong, with the expectation of a better market there were also many instances where the SnP market had no time to correct before the freight market surged higher.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 18 May 17
SOUTHEAST ASIA CAN ACCELERATE ACHIEVEMENT OF PARIS AGREEMENT GOALS - WCA
Low emissions coal in Asia reduces more CO2 emissions than renewable investment in Western Europe.
Investing in low emissions coal plants in S ...
Monday, 15 May 17
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE HAS SHIPPED 0.99 PERCENT LESS COAL IN APRIL 2017
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports, and the world’s largest coal export ports has shipped $AU 1,636.2 ...
Monday, 15 May 17
THE CAPESIZE INDEX ROSE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS PAST WEEK COMPARED TO PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market slightly up this past week, as BDI and Cape shows a positive trend week over week.
The Baltic Exchange, track ...
Friday, 12 May 17
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DOWN AGAIN WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.3 million short tons ...
Friday, 12 May 17
SLOW AND UNEVENTFUL WEEK FOR THE PANAMAX MARKET
Supramax
In the Atlantic, only USG were showing some improvement, where pet-coke cargoes to India was fixed in the range of 19-23k daily and to C ...
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Showing 2046 to 2050 news of total 6871 |
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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