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Wednesday, 17 May 17
THE CHINESE IMPORTS ARE A BAROMETER FOR VESSEL UTILIZATION - INTERMODAL
 According to economic data, China imports increased year-on-year 38% in February, 20% in March – which is approximately US$160-170b - whilst in April they failed reaching market estimates which were at 18% rise and remained at 12% rise year-on-year to USD 142b. Maybe this explains the softening in the freight markets experienced over the past month.
The main drivers are coal and lignite, iron ore, and soybeans for the dry and crude and refined oil for the wet sector. So, being one of the biggest consumers of commodities in the world, it's quite evident that Chinese imports are a barometer for vessel utilization and any surges thereof are very closely correlated with the freight market. For the record, the imports reached their five-years low in Q1 2016 – well below US$100b - and before that in Q3 2014, just like the Baltic Dry Index.
Looking forward at forecasts in order to see how the shipping market will also unfold, analysts’ expectations and econometric models are for imports in China to relatively recede in the second half of this year to US$130b, before they pick up again in Q1 2018 and at around $142b in 12 months’ time. In the long-term, China imports are projected to trend around $168b in 2020.
If the models and analysts are right – are they ever?? - we expect, within the foreseeable future, demand to fluctuate around today's levels. Any spikes, dips or seasonality either from China or other markets will be of course reflected in freight rates but it should be temporary.
At the same time, the supply has been relatively restrained, compared to last year the fleet >20,000dwt is bigger by just 280 vessels and this is another one of the reasons that we 'felt' the demand spikes earlier in the year. Furthermore, although in 2017 we have notably much less demolition activity and reactivation of laid-up vessels, this time last year and for the rest of 2016 only we had 662 dry bulkers in the order book, whilst today the entire dry order book for the next three years is at 720 vessels and the order book-to-fleet ratio at 7% for most of the sub-sectors. There are substantially less newbuilding deliveries expected for the rest of 2017, slightly more than 400 vessels and will probably be even less if we consider slippage and non-yet-registered cancellations. To-date the fleet >20,000dwt has grown by almost 140 vessels.
So, the multi-million dollar question remains the same. Is it now a good entry point to invest in shipping before prices move further north or should we expect a correction in prices? Well the common consensus is that current asset prices reflect better last month's freight market.
This is something normal since there has always been a lag between the two variables. If analysts are right for softer demand from China in H2 2017 and there is no major event to affect demand positively, we should see a correction in prices. However, on top of the times when analysts and econometric models were wrong, with the expectation of a better market there were also many instances where the SnP market had no time to correct before the freight market surged higher.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 18 May 17
SOUTHEAST ASIA CAN ACCELERATE ACHIEVEMENT OF PARIS AGREEMENT GOALS - WCA
Low emissions coal in Asia reduces more CO2 emissions than renewable investment in Western Europe.
Investing in low emissions coal plants in S ...
Monday, 15 May 17
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE HAS SHIPPED 0.99 PERCENT LESS COAL IN APRIL 2017
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports, and the world’s largest coal export ports has shipped $AU 1,636.2 ...
Monday, 15 May 17
THE CAPESIZE INDEX ROSE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS PAST WEEK COMPARED TO PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market slightly up this past week, as BDI and Cape shows a positive trend week over week.
The Baltic Exchange, track ...
Friday, 12 May 17
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DOWN AGAIN WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.3 million short tons ...
Friday, 12 May 17
SLOW AND UNEVENTFUL WEEK FOR THE PANAMAX MARKET
Supramax
In the Atlantic, only USG were showing some improvement, where pet-coke cargoes to India was fixed in the range of 19-23k daily and to C ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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