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Wednesday, 17 May 17
THE CHINESE IMPORTS ARE A BAROMETER FOR VESSEL UTILIZATION - INTERMODAL
 According to economic data, China imports increased year-on-year 38% in February, 20% in March – which is approximately US$160-170b - whilst in April they failed reaching market estimates which were at 18% rise and remained at 12% rise year-on-year to USD 142b. Maybe this explains the softening in the freight markets experienced over the past month.
The main drivers are coal and lignite, iron ore, and soybeans for the dry and crude and refined oil for the wet sector. So, being one of the biggest consumers of commodities in the world, it's quite evident that Chinese imports are a barometer for vessel utilization and any surges thereof are very closely correlated with the freight market. For the record, the imports reached their five-years low in Q1 2016 – well below US$100b - and before that in Q3 2014, just like the Baltic Dry Index.
Looking forward at forecasts in order to see how the shipping market will also unfold, analysts’ expectations and econometric models are for imports in China to relatively recede in the second half of this year to US$130b, before they pick up again in Q1 2018 and at around $142b in 12 months’ time. In the long-term, China imports are projected to trend around $168b in 2020.
If the models and analysts are right – are they ever?? - we expect, within the foreseeable future, demand to fluctuate around today's levels. Any spikes, dips or seasonality either from China or other markets will be of course reflected in freight rates but it should be temporary.
At the same time, the supply has been relatively restrained, compared to last year the fleet >20,000dwt is bigger by just 280 vessels and this is another one of the reasons that we 'felt' the demand spikes earlier in the year. Furthermore, although in 2017 we have notably much less demolition activity and reactivation of laid-up vessels, this time last year and for the rest of 2016 only we had 662 dry bulkers in the order book, whilst today the entire dry order book for the next three years is at 720 vessels and the order book-to-fleet ratio at 7% for most of the sub-sectors. There are substantially less newbuilding deliveries expected for the rest of 2017, slightly more than 400 vessels and will probably be even less if we consider slippage and non-yet-registered cancellations. To-date the fleet >20,000dwt has grown by almost 140 vessels.
So, the multi-million dollar question remains the same. Is it now a good entry point to invest in shipping before prices move further north or should we expect a correction in prices? Well the common consensus is that current asset prices reflect better last month's freight market.
This is something normal since there has always been a lag between the two variables. If analysts are right for softer demand from China in H2 2017 and there is no major event to affect demand positively, we should see a correction in prices. However, on top of the times when analysts and econometric models were wrong, with the expectation of a better market there were also many instances where the SnP market had no time to correct before the freight market surged higher.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 May 17
LR MARKET IT SEEMS THAT EARNINGS ARE STILL UNDER PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching the summer season, the Clean Product market appears poised to become more challenging, either on East or West of Suez.
L ...
Tuesday, 23 May 17
TANKERS WEEKLY MARKET NOTE - ALLIED
It’s been a turbulent couple of weeks on the oil front, with the effectiveness of OPEC’s policy being under debate amongst most traders ...
Monday, 22 May 17
THE SHIPPING INDEX DECLINES AGAIN
COALspot.com: The Freight market again decline this past week, as BDI and all other indexes show a negative trend week over week.
The Baltic E ...
Friday, 19 May 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 1.2% WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.5 million short ton ...
Thursday, 18 May 17
SUPRAMAX : COAL TRIPS TO CHINA WITH VESSELS OPEN INDO HAVE BEEN FIXED AROUND $8000
Supramax
Atlantic market has stayed quiet with no substantial developments.
Cont to Med scrap cargoes have concluded around 11k says Fearnle ...
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Showing 2041 to 2045 news of total 6871 |
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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