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Wednesday, 17 May 17
THE CHINESE IMPORTS ARE A BAROMETER FOR VESSEL UTILIZATION - INTERMODAL
 According to economic data, China imports increased year-on-year 38% in February, 20% in March – which is approximately US$160-170b - whilst in April they failed reaching market estimates which were at 18% rise and remained at 12% rise year-on-year to USD 142b. Maybe this explains the softening in the freight markets experienced over the past month.
The main drivers are coal and lignite, iron ore, and soybeans for the dry and crude and refined oil for the wet sector. So, being one of the biggest consumers of commodities in the world, it's quite evident that Chinese imports are a barometer for vessel utilization and any surges thereof are very closely correlated with the freight market. For the record, the imports reached their five-years low in Q1 2016 – well below US$100b - and before that in Q3 2014, just like the Baltic Dry Index.
Looking forward at forecasts in order to see how the shipping market will also unfold, analysts’ expectations and econometric models are for imports in China to relatively recede in the second half of this year to US$130b, before they pick up again in Q1 2018 and at around $142b in 12 months’ time. In the long-term, China imports are projected to trend around $168b in 2020.
If the models and analysts are right – are they ever?? - we expect, within the foreseeable future, demand to fluctuate around today's levels. Any spikes, dips or seasonality either from China or other markets will be of course reflected in freight rates but it should be temporary.
At the same time, the supply has been relatively restrained, compared to last year the fleet >20,000dwt is bigger by just 280 vessels and this is another one of the reasons that we 'felt' the demand spikes earlier in the year. Furthermore, although in 2017 we have notably much less demolition activity and reactivation of laid-up vessels, this time last year and for the rest of 2016 only we had 662 dry bulkers in the order book, whilst today the entire dry order book for the next three years is at 720 vessels and the order book-to-fleet ratio at 7% for most of the sub-sectors. There are substantially less newbuilding deliveries expected for the rest of 2017, slightly more than 400 vessels and will probably be even less if we consider slippage and non-yet-registered cancellations. To-date the fleet >20,000dwt has grown by almost 140 vessels.
So, the multi-million dollar question remains the same. Is it now a good entry point to invest in shipping before prices move further north or should we expect a correction in prices? Well the common consensus is that current asset prices reflect better last month's freight market.
This is something normal since there has always been a lag between the two variables. If analysts are right for softer demand from China in H2 2017 and there is no major event to affect demand positively, we should see a correction in prices. However, on top of the times when analysts and econometric models were wrong, with the expectation of a better market there were also many instances where the SnP market had no time to correct before the freight market surged higher.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 June 17
INDO HBA INDEX SEE LARGEST DROP SINCE FEBRUARY 2017
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal benchmark price decline 9.96% in June, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal de ...
Wednesday, 07 June 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
2017 undoubtedly began with very optimistic signs for the future of the Oil & Gas industry on the back of the Vienna Agreement. OPEC and non-OP ...
Tuesday, 06 June 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS CONTINUE TO TUMBLE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market continued to tumble this past week, as BDI and cape index showed a negative trend week over week.
The Baltic ...
Friday, 02 June 17
THE WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION HAS RESPONDED TO THE WITHDRAWAL OF THE UNITED STATES FROM THE PARIS AGREEMENT
“This decision is the result of a failure to build a genuine coalition on climate action that recognises the role of all technologies, includ ...
Friday, 02 June 17
MOL SIGNS COAL TRANSPORT DEAL WITH THERMAL POWERTECH CORPORATION INDIA LIMITED
MOL Signs Coal Transport Deal with Thermal Powertech Corporation India Limited - Contributing to a Stable Power Supply in India -
Jun ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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