We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 17 May 17
THE CHINESE IMPORTS ARE A BAROMETER FOR VESSEL UTILIZATION - INTERMODAL
 According to economic data, China imports increased year-on-year 38% in February, 20% in March – which is approximately US$160-170b - whilst in April they failed reaching market estimates which were at 18% rise and remained at 12% rise year-on-year to USD 142b. Maybe this explains the softening in the freight markets experienced over the past month.
The main drivers are coal and lignite, iron ore, and soybeans for the dry and crude and refined oil for the wet sector. So, being one of the biggest consumers of commodities in the world, it's quite evident that Chinese imports are a barometer for vessel utilization and any surges thereof are very closely correlated with the freight market. For the record, the imports reached their five-years low in Q1 2016 – well below US$100b - and before that in Q3 2014, just like the Baltic Dry Index.
Looking forward at forecasts in order to see how the shipping market will also unfold, analysts’ expectations and econometric models are for imports in China to relatively recede in the second half of this year to US$130b, before they pick up again in Q1 2018 and at around $142b in 12 months’ time. In the long-term, China imports are projected to trend around $168b in 2020.
If the models and analysts are right – are they ever?? - we expect, within the foreseeable future, demand to fluctuate around today's levels. Any spikes, dips or seasonality either from China or other markets will be of course reflected in freight rates but it should be temporary.
At the same time, the supply has been relatively restrained, compared to last year the fleet >20,000dwt is bigger by just 280 vessels and this is another one of the reasons that we 'felt' the demand spikes earlier in the year. Furthermore, although in 2017 we have notably much less demolition activity and reactivation of laid-up vessels, this time last year and for the rest of 2016 only we had 662 dry bulkers in the order book, whilst today the entire dry order book for the next three years is at 720 vessels and the order book-to-fleet ratio at 7% for most of the sub-sectors. There are substantially less newbuilding deliveries expected for the rest of 2017, slightly more than 400 vessels and will probably be even less if we consider slippage and non-yet-registered cancellations. To-date the fleet >20,000dwt has grown by almost 140 vessels.
So, the multi-million dollar question remains the same. Is it now a good entry point to invest in shipping before prices move further north or should we expect a correction in prices? Well the common consensus is that current asset prices reflect better last month's freight market.
This is something normal since there has always been a lag between the two variables. If analysts are right for softer demand from China in H2 2017 and there is no major event to affect demand positively, we should see a correction in prices. However, on top of the times when analysts and econometric models were wrong, with the expectation of a better market there were also many instances where the SnP market had no time to correct before the freight market surged higher.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 21 June 17
MARKET INSIGHT - SHIPPING
Looking back at March and April shipping reports when the dry bulk indexes were starting to move up, a number of shipping analysts were stating tha ...
Tuesday, 20 June 17
WORLD ECONOMY SHOWS A MORE OPTIMISTIC TREND
During the past weeks, we have seen many organizations and think tanks show a more optimistic face with regards to the world economy. The World Ban ...
Monday, 19 June 17
PANAMAX RATES HELP BALTIC INDEX TO A POSITIVE MOVE
COALspot.com: The Freight market rose very marginally this past week compared to the previous week, as BDI and Panamax indexes show a positive tren ...
Friday, 16 June 17
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION RISES; UP 24.1% Y/Y
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.5 million short tonn ...
Thursday, 15 June 17
SUPRAMAX NICKEL ORE FROM PHILIPPINES TO S. CHINA PAYING AROUND MID $10000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Market looked more promising from both sides of the basins. Within Atlantic USG returned with tick better rates seen as tonnage kept tig ...
|
|
|
Showing 2021 to 2025 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
