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Wednesday, 17 May 17
THE CHINESE IMPORTS ARE A BAROMETER FOR VESSEL UTILIZATION - INTERMODAL
 According to economic data, China imports increased year-on-year 38% in February, 20% in March – which is approximately US$160-170b - whilst in April they failed reaching market estimates which were at 18% rise and remained at 12% rise year-on-year to USD 142b. Maybe this explains the softening in the freight markets experienced over the past month.
The main drivers are coal and lignite, iron ore, and soybeans for the dry and crude and refined oil for the wet sector. So, being one of the biggest consumers of commodities in the world, it's quite evident that Chinese imports are a barometer for vessel utilization and any surges thereof are very closely correlated with the freight market. For the record, the imports reached their five-years low in Q1 2016 – well below US$100b - and before that in Q3 2014, just like the Baltic Dry Index.
Looking forward at forecasts in order to see how the shipping market will also unfold, analysts’ expectations and econometric models are for imports in China to relatively recede in the second half of this year to US$130b, before they pick up again in Q1 2018 and at around $142b in 12 months’ time. In the long-term, China imports are projected to trend around $168b in 2020.
If the models and analysts are right – are they ever?? - we expect, within the foreseeable future, demand to fluctuate around today's levels. Any spikes, dips or seasonality either from China or other markets will be of course reflected in freight rates but it should be temporary.
At the same time, the supply has been relatively restrained, compared to last year the fleet >20,000dwt is bigger by just 280 vessels and this is another one of the reasons that we 'felt' the demand spikes earlier in the year. Furthermore, although in 2017 we have notably much less demolition activity and reactivation of laid-up vessels, this time last year and for the rest of 2016 only we had 662 dry bulkers in the order book, whilst today the entire dry order book for the next three years is at 720 vessels and the order book-to-fleet ratio at 7% for most of the sub-sectors. There are substantially less newbuilding deliveries expected for the rest of 2017, slightly more than 400 vessels and will probably be even less if we consider slippage and non-yet-registered cancellations. To-date the fleet >20,000dwt has grown by almost 140 vessels.
So, the multi-million dollar question remains the same. Is it now a good entry point to invest in shipping before prices move further north or should we expect a correction in prices? Well the common consensus is that current asset prices reflect better last month's freight market.
This is something normal since there has always been a lag between the two variables. If analysts are right for softer demand from China in H2 2017 and there is no major event to affect demand positively, we should see a correction in prices. However, on top of the times when analysts and econometric models were wrong, with the expectation of a better market there were also many instances where the SnP market had no time to correct before the freight market surged higher.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 July 17
EIA ESTIMATES SHOW U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 1.7 PERCENT
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.9 million short tonn ...
Thursday, 06 July 17
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO INDIA TRIPS WITH DELIVERY THAILAND RANGE IS GIVING OWNERS AROUND MID $8000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Another slow start to the week with somewhat softening rates and few fixtures.
According to Fearnleys Weekly Dry bulk report, the N ...
Thursday, 06 July 17
UNEXPECTED MOVE FROM CHINA BOOSTS COAL PRICES - OIL PRICE
Coal prices have been cooling the last few months — after a spectacular run last year. But news late last week suggests the market is about t ...
Wednesday, 05 July 17
COAL PRICES ROSE IN CHINA, JAPAN AND EUROPE IN 2016 - BP
COALspot.com: Coal prices rose in China, Japan and Europe in 2016 after four years of price declines.
According to bp, the rise in coal prices ...
Wednesday, 05 July 17
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
A war of words blasted last month as the UAE, S. Arabia, Egypt and Bahrain revealed that they are experiencing severe diplomatic issues with the st ...
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Showing 2011 to 2015 news of total 6871 |
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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