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Wednesday, 17 May 17
THE CHINESE IMPORTS ARE A BAROMETER FOR VESSEL UTILIZATION - INTERMODAL
 According to economic data, China imports increased year-on-year 38% in February, 20% in March – which is approximately US$160-170b - whilst in April they failed reaching market estimates which were at 18% rise and remained at 12% rise year-on-year to USD 142b. Maybe this explains the softening in the freight markets experienced over the past month.
The main drivers are coal and lignite, iron ore, and soybeans for the dry and crude and refined oil for the wet sector. So, being one of the biggest consumers of commodities in the world, it's quite evident that Chinese imports are a barometer for vessel utilization and any surges thereof are very closely correlated with the freight market. For the record, the imports reached their five-years low in Q1 2016 – well below US$100b - and before that in Q3 2014, just like the Baltic Dry Index.
Looking forward at forecasts in order to see how the shipping market will also unfold, analysts’ expectations and econometric models are for imports in China to relatively recede in the second half of this year to US$130b, before they pick up again in Q1 2018 and at around $142b in 12 months’ time. In the long-term, China imports are projected to trend around $168b in 2020.
If the models and analysts are right – are they ever?? - we expect, within the foreseeable future, demand to fluctuate around today's levels. Any spikes, dips or seasonality either from China or other markets will be of course reflected in freight rates but it should be temporary.
At the same time, the supply has been relatively restrained, compared to last year the fleet >20,000dwt is bigger by just 280 vessels and this is another one of the reasons that we 'felt' the demand spikes earlier in the year. Furthermore, although in 2017 we have notably much less demolition activity and reactivation of laid-up vessels, this time last year and for the rest of 2016 only we had 662 dry bulkers in the order book, whilst today the entire dry order book for the next three years is at 720 vessels and the order book-to-fleet ratio at 7% for most of the sub-sectors. There are substantially less newbuilding deliveries expected for the rest of 2017, slightly more than 400 vessels and will probably be even less if we consider slippage and non-yet-registered cancellations. To-date the fleet >20,000dwt has grown by almost 140 vessels.
So, the multi-million dollar question remains the same. Is it now a good entry point to invest in shipping before prices move further north or should we expect a correction in prices? Well the common consensus is that current asset prices reflect better last month's freight market.
This is something normal since there has always been a lag between the two variables. If analysts are right for softer demand from China in H2 2017 and there is no major event to affect demand positively, we should see a correction in prices. However, on top of the times when analysts and econometric models were wrong, with the expectation of a better market there were also many instances where the SnP market had no time to correct before the freight market surged higher.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 13 July 17
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE TRIPS TO CHINA VIA PHILIPPINES WITH DELIVERY S. CHINA IS PAYING AROUND MID $9000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
COALspot.com: Another slow start to the week with somewhat softening rates and few fixtures.
Nickel Ore trips to China via the Phil ...
Wednesday, 12 July 17
COAL HAS CONTINUED A STELLAR RUN OVER THE PAST YEAR GAINING ~10% OVER THE PAST QUARTER AND ~41% OVER THE PAST YEAR - LINOS KOGEVINAS
Having just passed the second quarter of 2017, it is interesting to take a look at the performance of the commodity market and how certain commodit ...
Monday, 10 July 17
A ROLLERCOASTER YEAR FOR COAL PRICES; ICPR ROSE 4.62% M/M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal benchmark price rose 4.62% in July, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal c ...
Monday, 10 July 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS SHOWS A NEGATIVE TREND WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market decline this past week compared to the previous week, as BDI and Cape indexes show a negative trend week over week ...
Friday, 07 July 17
SHOULD WE BE AVOIDING GENERAL AVERAGE? - ALEX KEMP
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Calls for general average to be abolished are nearly as old as the regime itself. A representative of Lloyd’s atten ...
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Showing 2006 to 2010 news of total 6871 |
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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