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Wednesday, 17 May 17
THE CHINESE IMPORTS ARE A BAROMETER FOR VESSEL UTILIZATION - INTERMODAL
 According to economic data, China imports increased year-on-year 38% in February, 20% in March – which is approximately US$160-170b - whilst in April they failed reaching market estimates which were at 18% rise and remained at 12% rise year-on-year to USD 142b. Maybe this explains the softening in the freight markets experienced over the past month.
The main drivers are coal and lignite, iron ore, and soybeans for the dry and crude and refined oil for the wet sector. So, being one of the biggest consumers of commodities in the world, it's quite evident that Chinese imports are a barometer for vessel utilization and any surges thereof are very closely correlated with the freight market. For the record, the imports reached their five-years low in Q1 2016 – well below US$100b - and before that in Q3 2014, just like the Baltic Dry Index.
Looking forward at forecasts in order to see how the shipping market will also unfold, analysts’ expectations and econometric models are for imports in China to relatively recede in the second half of this year to US$130b, before they pick up again in Q1 2018 and at around $142b in 12 months’ time. In the long-term, China imports are projected to trend around $168b in 2020.
If the models and analysts are right – are they ever?? - we expect, within the foreseeable future, demand to fluctuate around today's levels. Any spikes, dips or seasonality either from China or other markets will be of course reflected in freight rates but it should be temporary.
At the same time, the supply has been relatively restrained, compared to last year the fleet >20,000dwt is bigger by just 280 vessels and this is another one of the reasons that we 'felt' the demand spikes earlier in the year. Furthermore, although in 2017 we have notably much less demolition activity and reactivation of laid-up vessels, this time last year and for the rest of 2016 only we had 662 dry bulkers in the order book, whilst today the entire dry order book for the next three years is at 720 vessels and the order book-to-fleet ratio at 7% for most of the sub-sectors. There are substantially less newbuilding deliveries expected for the rest of 2017, slightly more than 400 vessels and will probably be even less if we consider slippage and non-yet-registered cancellations. To-date the fleet >20,000dwt has grown by almost 140 vessels.
So, the multi-million dollar question remains the same. Is it now a good entry point to invest in shipping before prices move further north or should we expect a correction in prices? Well the common consensus is that current asset prices reflect better last month's freight market.
This is something normal since there has always been a lag between the two variables. If analysts are right for softer demand from China in H2 2017 and there is no major event to affect demand positively, we should see a correction in prices. However, on top of the times when analysts and econometric models were wrong, with the expectation of a better market there were also many instances where the SnP market had no time to correct before the freight market surged higher.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 27 July 17
A VOLATILE WEEK IN THE CAPE MARKET - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The black sea still performing well although bit fewer fixtures concluded/reported. Rates lie somewhere around 18 -19 on front-haul . Bo ...
Wednesday, 26 July 17
SHIPPIPNG MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
After an admittedly challenging 2016, the Dry Bulk market kicked off this year on a much more positive note, with all indices steadily increasing u ...
Monday, 24 July 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET ROSE THIS PAST WEEK COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market rose this past week compared to the previous week, as BDI and Cape indexes show a positive trend week over week.
...
Friday, 21 July 17
ESTIMATED WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 15.3 MMST; UP 13.5% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.3 million short tonn ...
Thursday, 20 July 17
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL ROUNDS ARE TRADING AROUND MID/HIGH $11K WITH SINGAPORE DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A positive week again in the Pacific with rates moving upwards.
According to Fearnleys Weekly Dry bulk report, Nopac rounds are pay ...
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Showing 1996 to 2000 news of total 6871 |
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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