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Wednesday, 17 May 17
THE CHINESE IMPORTS ARE A BAROMETER FOR VESSEL UTILIZATION - INTERMODAL
 According to economic data, China imports increased year-on-year 38% in February, 20% in March – which is approximately US$160-170b - whilst in April they failed reaching market estimates which were at 18% rise and remained at 12% rise year-on-year to USD 142b. Maybe this explains the softening in the freight markets experienced over the past month.
The main drivers are coal and lignite, iron ore, and soybeans for the dry and crude and refined oil for the wet sector. So, being one of the biggest consumers of commodities in the world, it's quite evident that Chinese imports are a barometer for vessel utilization and any surges thereof are very closely correlated with the freight market. For the record, the imports reached their five-years low in Q1 2016 – well below US$100b - and before that in Q3 2014, just like the Baltic Dry Index.
Looking forward at forecasts in order to see how the shipping market will also unfold, analysts’ expectations and econometric models are for imports in China to relatively recede in the second half of this year to US$130b, before they pick up again in Q1 2018 and at around $142b in 12 months’ time. In the long-term, China imports are projected to trend around $168b in 2020.
If the models and analysts are right – are they ever?? - we expect, within the foreseeable future, demand to fluctuate around today's levels. Any spikes, dips or seasonality either from China or other markets will be of course reflected in freight rates but it should be temporary.
At the same time, the supply has been relatively restrained, compared to last year the fleet >20,000dwt is bigger by just 280 vessels and this is another one of the reasons that we 'felt' the demand spikes earlier in the year. Furthermore, although in 2017 we have notably much less demolition activity and reactivation of laid-up vessels, this time last year and for the rest of 2016 only we had 662 dry bulkers in the order book, whilst today the entire dry order book for the next three years is at 720 vessels and the order book-to-fleet ratio at 7% for most of the sub-sectors. There are substantially less newbuilding deliveries expected for the rest of 2017, slightly more than 400 vessels and will probably be even less if we consider slippage and non-yet-registered cancellations. To-date the fleet >20,000dwt has grown by almost 140 vessels.
So, the multi-million dollar question remains the same. Is it now a good entry point to invest in shipping before prices move further north or should we expect a correction in prices? Well the common consensus is that current asset prices reflect better last month's freight market.
This is something normal since there has always been a lag between the two variables. If analysts are right for softer demand from China in H2 2017 and there is no major event to affect demand positively, we should see a correction in prices. However, on top of the times when analysts and econometric models were wrong, with the expectation of a better market there were also many instances where the SnP market had no time to correct before the freight market surged higher.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 04 August 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 4.4% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million short tonn ...
Friday, 04 August 17
IMPORTED COAL CONTINUES TO BE A COMPETITIVE, SAFE AND RELIABLE ENERGY SOURCE FOR GERMANY - VDKI
COALspot.com: Worldwide hard coal production in 2016 declined by 3.8% to 6.7 billion tonnes.
According to the Germany Coal Importers Associati ...
Thursday, 03 August 17
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA COAL ROUNDS ARE GETTING FIXED AROUND MID $8000 - FEARNLEYS
In the Pacific rates have remained weak and under pressure this week with most routes softening.
Indo/China coal rounds are getting fixed arou ...
Thursday, 03 August 17
BUMI RESOURCES COAL SALES RELATIVELY FLAT AT 41.5 MILLION TONS IN 1H' 17; REPORTS US$162.3 MILLION PROFIT IN FIRST SEMESTER
COALspot.com: The BUMI Resources, Indonesia’s one of the largest coal producer, has reported a net income of $162.3 million in 1H’ 17 c ...
Wednesday, 02 August 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
During the duration of the first half of the year, the dry bulk market saw intense buying interest that boosted SnP prices significantly. We saw a ...
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Showing 1986 to 1990 news of total 6871 |
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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