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Wednesday, 17 May 17
THE CHINESE IMPORTS ARE A BAROMETER FOR VESSEL UTILIZATION - INTERMODAL
 According to economic data, China imports increased year-on-year 38% in February, 20% in March – which is approximately US$160-170b - whilst in April they failed reaching market estimates which were at 18% rise and remained at 12% rise year-on-year to USD 142b. Maybe this explains the softening in the freight markets experienced over the past month.
The main drivers are coal and lignite, iron ore, and soybeans for the dry and crude and refined oil for the wet sector. So, being one of the biggest consumers of commodities in the world, it's quite evident that Chinese imports are a barometer for vessel utilization and any surges thereof are very closely correlated with the freight market. For the record, the imports reached their five-years low in Q1 2016 – well below US$100b - and before that in Q3 2014, just like the Baltic Dry Index.
Looking forward at forecasts in order to see how the shipping market will also unfold, analysts’ expectations and econometric models are for imports in China to relatively recede in the second half of this year to US$130b, before they pick up again in Q1 2018 and at around $142b in 12 months’ time. In the long-term, China imports are projected to trend around $168b in 2020.
If the models and analysts are right – are they ever?? - we expect, within the foreseeable future, demand to fluctuate around today's levels. Any spikes, dips or seasonality either from China or other markets will be of course reflected in freight rates but it should be temporary.
At the same time, the supply has been relatively restrained, compared to last year the fleet >20,000dwt is bigger by just 280 vessels and this is another one of the reasons that we 'felt' the demand spikes earlier in the year. Furthermore, although in 2017 we have notably much less demolition activity and reactivation of laid-up vessels, this time last year and for the rest of 2016 only we had 662 dry bulkers in the order book, whilst today the entire dry order book for the next three years is at 720 vessels and the order book-to-fleet ratio at 7% for most of the sub-sectors. There are substantially less newbuilding deliveries expected for the rest of 2017, slightly more than 400 vessels and will probably be even less if we consider slippage and non-yet-registered cancellations. To-date the fleet >20,000dwt has grown by almost 140 vessels.
So, the multi-million dollar question remains the same. Is it now a good entry point to invest in shipping before prices move further north or should we expect a correction in prices? Well the common consensus is that current asset prices reflect better last month's freight market.
This is something normal since there has always been a lag between the two variables. If analysts are right for softer demand from China in H2 2017 and there is no major event to affect demand positively, we should see a correction in prices. However, on top of the times when analysts and econometric models were wrong, with the expectation of a better market there were also many instances where the SnP market had no time to correct before the freight market surged higher.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 August 17
ANOTHER ACTIVE WEEK FOR THE PANAMAXES WITH INCREASING RATES IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Both basins have remained fairly flat, could say slightly to the negative. A quiet start of the week in the Pacific with holidays in Sin ...
Wednesday, 09 August 17
THE KEY IMPORTERS OF U.S. COAL FOR THE FIRST FIVE MONTHS OF 2017 ARE THE NETHERLANDS, INDIA AND JAPAN - PETER SAND, BIMCO
US seaborne coal exports have turned years of negative growth around and seem to be climbing for a third quarter in a row. The increase in total vo ...
Wednesday, 09 August 17
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE INCREASE COULD CONTINUE IN THE COMING MONTHS
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal benchmark price rose 6.36% in August, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 09 August 17
COAL HAS GAINED AROUND 40% OVER THE PAST TWELVE MONTHS; IRON ORE HAS MOVED FROM AROUND $50/T IN AUGUST 2016 TO OVER $70/T TODAY - INTERMODAL
During the summer’s peak, and with the markets remaining relatively quiet, we can argue that most markets have built solid foundations to enj ...
Tuesday, 08 August 17
THE BULLISH RIDE CONTINUES ON FOR THE IRON ORE MARKET - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The bullish ride continues on for the iron ore market, with most in the market now eyeing the possibility for further gains to be had as Chine ...
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Showing 1976 to 1980 news of total 6871 |
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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