We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 17 May 17
THE CHINESE IMPORTS ARE A BAROMETER FOR VESSEL UTILIZATION - INTERMODAL
 According to economic data, China imports increased year-on-year 38% in February, 20% in March – which is approximately US$160-170b - whilst in April they failed reaching market estimates which were at 18% rise and remained at 12% rise year-on-year to USD 142b. Maybe this explains the softening in the freight markets experienced over the past month.
The main drivers are coal and lignite, iron ore, and soybeans for the dry and crude and refined oil for the wet sector. So, being one of the biggest consumers of commodities in the world, it's quite evident that Chinese imports are a barometer for vessel utilization and any surges thereof are very closely correlated with the freight market. For the record, the imports reached their five-years low in Q1 2016 – well below US$100b - and before that in Q3 2014, just like the Baltic Dry Index.
Looking forward at forecasts in order to see how the shipping market will also unfold, analysts’ expectations and econometric models are for imports in China to relatively recede in the second half of this year to US$130b, before they pick up again in Q1 2018 and at around $142b in 12 months’ time. In the long-term, China imports are projected to trend around $168b in 2020.
If the models and analysts are right – are they ever?? - we expect, within the foreseeable future, demand to fluctuate around today's levels. Any spikes, dips or seasonality either from China or other markets will be of course reflected in freight rates but it should be temporary.
At the same time, the supply has been relatively restrained, compared to last year the fleet >20,000dwt is bigger by just 280 vessels and this is another one of the reasons that we 'felt' the demand spikes earlier in the year. Furthermore, although in 2017 we have notably much less demolition activity and reactivation of laid-up vessels, this time last year and for the rest of 2016 only we had 662 dry bulkers in the order book, whilst today the entire dry order book for the next three years is at 720 vessels and the order book-to-fleet ratio at 7% for most of the sub-sectors. There are substantially less newbuilding deliveries expected for the rest of 2017, slightly more than 400 vessels and will probably be even less if we consider slippage and non-yet-registered cancellations. To-date the fleet >20,000dwt has grown by almost 140 vessels.
So, the multi-million dollar question remains the same. Is it now a good entry point to invest in shipping before prices move further north or should we expect a correction in prices? Well the common consensus is that current asset prices reflect better last month's freight market.
This is something normal since there has always been a lag between the two variables. If analysts are right for softer demand from China in H2 2017 and there is no major event to affect demand positively, we should see a correction in prices. However, on top of the times when analysts and econometric models were wrong, with the expectation of a better market there were also many instances where the SnP market had no time to correct before the freight market surged higher.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 31 July 17
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 750K MT OF 5,700 KCAL/KG NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 750,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal for its B ...
Monday, 31 July 17
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 17.08 PERCENT LESS COAL IN JUNE 2017 COMPARED TO ITS MAY LOADING
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports, and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,442.8 ...
Monday, 31 July 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET DECLINE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market decline this past week compared to the previous week, as BDI and Panamax indexes show a negative trend week over w ...
Friday, 28 July 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 1.4% WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.5 million short tonn ...
Thursday, 27 July 17
CAMPBELL SHIPPING APPOINTS ISS FOR GLOBAL HUSBANDRY REPRESENTATION SERVICES CONTRACT - ISS
COALspot.com: Inchcape Shipping Services (ISS) is delighted to announce that it has secured a global husbandry representation contract with Campbel ...
|
|
|
Showing 1991 to 1995 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
|
| |
| |
|
