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Wednesday, 17 May 17
THE CHINESE IMPORTS ARE A BAROMETER FOR VESSEL UTILIZATION - INTERMODAL
 According to economic data, China imports increased year-on-year 38% in February, 20% in March – which is approximately US$160-170b - whilst in April they failed reaching market estimates which were at 18% rise and remained at 12% rise year-on-year to USD 142b. Maybe this explains the softening in the freight markets experienced over the past month.
The main drivers are coal and lignite, iron ore, and soybeans for the dry and crude and refined oil for the wet sector. So, being one of the biggest consumers of commodities in the world, it's quite evident that Chinese imports are a barometer for vessel utilization and any surges thereof are very closely correlated with the freight market. For the record, the imports reached their five-years low in Q1 2016 – well below US$100b - and before that in Q3 2014, just like the Baltic Dry Index.
Looking forward at forecasts in order to see how the shipping market will also unfold, analysts’ expectations and econometric models are for imports in China to relatively recede in the second half of this year to US$130b, before they pick up again in Q1 2018 and at around $142b in 12 months’ time. In the long-term, China imports are projected to trend around $168b in 2020.
If the models and analysts are right – are they ever?? - we expect, within the foreseeable future, demand to fluctuate around today's levels. Any spikes, dips or seasonality either from China or other markets will be of course reflected in freight rates but it should be temporary.
At the same time, the supply has been relatively restrained, compared to last year the fleet >20,000dwt is bigger by just 280 vessels and this is another one of the reasons that we 'felt' the demand spikes earlier in the year. Furthermore, although in 2017 we have notably much less demolition activity and reactivation of laid-up vessels, this time last year and for the rest of 2016 only we had 662 dry bulkers in the order book, whilst today the entire dry order book for the next three years is at 720 vessels and the order book-to-fleet ratio at 7% for most of the sub-sectors. There are substantially less newbuilding deliveries expected for the rest of 2017, slightly more than 400 vessels and will probably be even less if we consider slippage and non-yet-registered cancellations. To-date the fleet >20,000dwt has grown by almost 140 vessels.
So, the multi-million dollar question remains the same. Is it now a good entry point to invest in shipping before prices move further north or should we expect a correction in prices? Well the common consensus is that current asset prices reflect better last month's freight market.
This is something normal since there has always been a lag between the two variables. If analysts are right for softer demand from China in H2 2017 and there is no major event to affect demand positively, we should see a correction in prices. However, on top of the times when analysts and econometric models were wrong, with the expectation of a better market there were also many instances where the SnP market had no time to correct before the freight market surged higher.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 19 July 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Referring back to a previous Intermodal insight that was written in the first quarter of 2017, the author at the time had claimed that MR tanker ra ...
Tuesday, 18 July 17
CHINA'S ECONOMY HAS BOOSTED OPTIMISM IN THE MARKET - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
COALspot.com: China’s economy has boosted optimism in the market as its recently announced GDP growth for the second quarter of the year exce ...
Friday, 14 July 17
IMPORTED COAL IS STILL A SAFE AND RELIABLE SOURCE OF ENERGY IN GERMANY - VDKI
COALspot.com: Imported coal is still a safe and reliable source of energy in Germany. World coal mining has reached a high plateau, but not yet a t ...
Friday, 14 July 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL-OUTPUT IN SIGNIFICANT DECLINE, EIA FIGURES SHOW
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million short tonn ...
Thursday, 13 July 17
BELT AND ROAD SHIPPING INDICES OFFICIALLY RELEASED - XINHUA
COALspot.com: The Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SSE) Tuesday officially launched the Belt and Road shipping indices to track freight trade data among ...
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Showing 2001 to 2005 news of total 6871 |
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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