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Wednesday, 17 May 17
THE CHINESE IMPORTS ARE A BAROMETER FOR VESSEL UTILIZATION - INTERMODAL
 According to economic data, China imports increased year-on-year 38% in February, 20% in March – which is approximately US$160-170b - whilst in April they failed reaching market estimates which were at 18% rise and remained at 12% rise year-on-year to USD 142b. Maybe this explains the softening in the freight markets experienced over the past month.
The main drivers are coal and lignite, iron ore, and soybeans for the dry and crude and refined oil for the wet sector. So, being one of the biggest consumers of commodities in the world, it's quite evident that Chinese imports are a barometer for vessel utilization and any surges thereof are very closely correlated with the freight market. For the record, the imports reached their five-years low in Q1 2016 – well below US$100b - and before that in Q3 2014, just like the Baltic Dry Index.
Looking forward at forecasts in order to see how the shipping market will also unfold, analysts’ expectations and econometric models are for imports in China to relatively recede in the second half of this year to US$130b, before they pick up again in Q1 2018 and at around $142b in 12 months’ time. In the long-term, China imports are projected to trend around $168b in 2020.
If the models and analysts are right – are they ever?? - we expect, within the foreseeable future, demand to fluctuate around today's levels. Any spikes, dips or seasonality either from China or other markets will be of course reflected in freight rates but it should be temporary.
At the same time, the supply has been relatively restrained, compared to last year the fleet >20,000dwt is bigger by just 280 vessels and this is another one of the reasons that we 'felt' the demand spikes earlier in the year. Furthermore, although in 2017 we have notably much less demolition activity and reactivation of laid-up vessels, this time last year and for the rest of 2016 only we had 662 dry bulkers in the order book, whilst today the entire dry order book for the next three years is at 720 vessels and the order book-to-fleet ratio at 7% for most of the sub-sectors. There are substantially less newbuilding deliveries expected for the rest of 2017, slightly more than 400 vessels and will probably be even less if we consider slippage and non-yet-registered cancellations. To-date the fleet >20,000dwt has grown by almost 140 vessels.
So, the multi-million dollar question remains the same. Is it now a good entry point to invest in shipping before prices move further north or should we expect a correction in prices? Well the common consensus is that current asset prices reflect better last month's freight market.
This is something normal since there has always been a lag between the two variables. If analysts are right for softer demand from China in H2 2017 and there is no major event to affect demand positively, we should see a correction in prices. However, on top of the times when analysts and econometric models were wrong, with the expectation of a better market there were also many instances where the SnP market had no time to correct before the freight market surged higher.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 June 17
U.S THE PAST WEEK'S COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATE UP 4.4% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15 million short tonnes ...
Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the carte ...
Tuesday, 30 May 17
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Despite the fair performance that has been noted in the Chinese economy over the past 5 months, we have started to see an increase in the skepticis ...
Friday, 26 May 17
MOST COAL PLANTS IN THE UNITED STATES WERE BUILT BEFORE 1990 - EIA
Coal-fired electricity generators accounted for 25% of operating electricity generating capacity in the United States and generated about 30% of U. ...
Friday, 26 May 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATE UP 6.3% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.3 million short ton ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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