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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 August 16
THE BALTIC EXCHANGE, TRACKING RATES FOR SHIPS CARRYING DRY BULK COMMODITIES SLIDE SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities slide slightly as Panamax and Supramax segments ending in ...
Monday, 08 August 16
ARE EXPENSES INCURRED DURING NEGOTIATION OF A PIRATE RANSOM RECOVERABLE IN GENERAL AVERAGE? - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Facts
The laden chemical tanker LONGCHAMP was transiting the Gulf of Aden on passage to Vietnam. The ship was subject t ...
Saturday, 06 August 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING CHARTER RATES TO RISE ON UNEXPECTED DEMAND GROWTH - DREWRY
Increasing trade and contracting supply will support a recovery in charter rates on major dry bulk shipping routes, with the prospect of China impo ...
Friday, 05 August 16
WEEKLY U.S. COAL OUTPUT TOTALED AN ESTIMATED 16.1 MMST IN THE WEEK ENDED JULY 30 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short tons ...
Friday, 05 August 16
CAPESIZE : RATES ARE REMAINING AT DEPRESSING LEVELS DUE TO LACK OF FRESH CARGOES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Last week has been one of the slowest for some time with rates under pressure in most areas.
In its latest weekly report, shipbroke ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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