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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 04 August 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES ARE STARTING TO ZOOM HIGHER; HBA ROSE 10.13% TO US$ 58.37 PER TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since August 2015.
The Director General of Mineral and Coa ...
Thursday, 04 August 16
BREXIT: IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL SHIPPING AND SEA TRADE - EVERSHEDS
The buzzword for the post-Brexit landscape both in Europe and further afield is ‘uncertainty’. No-one really knows the long term effect ...
Wednesday, 03 August 16
RECAAP INFORMATION SHARING CENTRE ISSUES SPECIAL REPORT ON THE ABDUCTING OF CREW FROM SHIPS IN WATERS OFF EASTERN SABAH AND SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the light of three incidents where the crew of tug boats were abducted in the waters off Eastern Sabah and Southern Ph ...
Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its glob ...
Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIP TRADING AND ORDERING CLOSE TO A STALEMATE AS SUMMER LULL KICKS IN
With newbuilding activity already at a near standstill since the start of the year, most of 2016’s trading activity in shipping was evident i ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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