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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 02 August 16
INDONESIAN CS COAL INDICES STAY POSITIVE
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.71% week over week to averaging $41.12 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) C ...
Monday, 01 August 16
4200 GAR INDONESIAN COAL PRICE MAY TOUCH $ 32/33 A TON LEVELS SOON
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal prices are likely surge further in 2016 as the recent price movement in Indonesian coal markets suggests that the mar ...
Monday, 01 August 16
BALTIC INDEX ENDED NEGATIVE NOTE THIS PAST WEEK ON WEAKER RATES ACROSS ALL LARGE VESSEL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities slide slightly as Cape, Panamax and Supramax segments end ...
Friday, 29 July 16
U.S. COAL OUTPUT SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 15 million short tons ( ...
Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow a ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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