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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 09 August 16
CS50 COAL INDEX HITS NEW FIFTY-WEEKS HIGH
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 1.78% week over week to averaging $41.85 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) C ...
Tuesday, 09 August 16
HARD COAL PRODUCTION AND WORLD TRADE ON THE DECLINE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN YEARS - VDKI
Hard coal production and world trade on the decline for the first time in years – not a harbinger of a global energy turnaround
Worldwid ...
Tuesday, 09 August 16
BREXIT, BRITANNIA AND THE WAVES - TREVOR CROWE, CLARKSON RESEARCH
This week, the Bank of England put into place its action plan following the UK referendum on 23rd June, which indicated the British population&rsqu ...
Monday, 08 August 16
INDONESIA'S DRAFT MINING LAW HINTS AT FUTURE REGULATORY FRAMEWORK
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COALspot.com: A draft mining law published by Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources provides use ...
Monday, 08 August 16
THE TURKISH GOVERNMENT HAS IMPOSED A $15 A TON DUTY ON POWER PLANT COAL IMPORTS - MEDIA
COALspot.com: The Turkish government has imposed a US$15 per ton duty on thermal coal imports for use in its power sector.
According to media ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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