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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 August 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ENDING AUGUST 6 FELL SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.9 million short ton ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
CAPESIZE THE PACIFIC SIDE IS LOOKING MORE POSITIVE, DRIVEN BY AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Rates continue to be under pressure with index ending up with 639 points and average TC value at USD6,680, said Fearnleys. Fearnleys A/S ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
EIA ESTIMATES THE DELIVERED COAL PRICE TO U.S. ELECTRIC UTILITIES IN 2017 AVERAGED $2.24/MMBTU; $0.05/MMBTU HIGHER THAN 2016 ESTIMATES
Coal Supply
U.S. coal production in July was 65 million short tons (MMst), an 8 MMst (14%) increase from the previous month but 11 MMst (15%) low ...
Wednesday, 10 August 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET KEPT SOFTENING LAST WEEK; WE CAN SEE MUCH HEALTHIER NUMBERS STARTING SEPTEMBER
The Dry Bulk market kept softening last week as we have now started going through the traditionally quieter days of the summer season peak period, ...
Wednesday, 10 August 16
THE INDONESIAN DRAFT NEW MINING LAW - AMENDMENTS TO THE 2009 MINING LAW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COALspot.com: A draft mining law published by Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources provides use ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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