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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 18 August 16
CAPESIZE: AN EXTREMELY VOLATILE LAST WEEK, WHERE THE MAIN DRIVER HAS BEEN THE WEST AUSTRALIA MARKET
Supramax
The week has held up. After the most of the world is back at work there is some optimism again in the market. The Far East volume has in ...
Tuesday, 16 August 16
WEEKLY CS42 COAL INDEX SOARS 14.08% YEAR TO DATE AMID HIGH DEMAND
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 2.37% week over week to averaging $42.84 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) C ...
Monday, 15 August 16
DRY BULK: 2017 COULD MARK THE START OF LOWER SHIP DELIVERIES HELPING TONNAGE SUPPLY ISSUES IN THE MARKET, SAYS SHIPOWNER - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk owner Pacific Basin, mainly active in the Handysize and Supramax trades appeared optimistic in its analysis of the prospects of the dry bu ...
Monday, 15 August 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES RALLYING; COAL OUTPUT REMAINS FLAT
COALspot.com: Global thermal coal prices, including Indonesian coal prices have risen sharply due to jump in imports from China as it curbs domesti ...
Monday, 15 August 16
THE SPOT FREIGHT MARKET STRENGTHEN OVER THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose as Cape and Panamax segments ending in a positive no ...
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Showing 2316 to 2320 news of total 6871 |
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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