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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 29 August 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS STEADY AND FIRM THIS PAST WEEK; BCI ROSE 18.74%
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week except ...
Friday, 26 August 16
WEEKLY US COAL OUTPUT UP 0.7% W/W TO 16 MMST: EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16 million short tons ...
Thursday, 25 August 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE BEING FIXED IN REGION OF $9000
Supramax
Due to Chinese coal imports which continues to source much of the tonnage in SE Asia combined with a good flow of mineral exports ex Aus ...
Wednesday, 24 August 16
MARKET INSIGHT
Brazil and the world bid farewell on Sunday to the first Olympic Games in South America in the midst of a finale meant to be both one last bash and ...
Wednesday, 24 August 16
DRY BULK VESSELS FACE CONTINUED DISTRESS - CLEAR ASSET
Dry bulk vessels have faced extreme distress in recent years. With a combination of factors including newer vessels being ordered with up to 5-year ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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