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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 01 September 16
SUPRAMAX GETTING LEVELS OF MID/HIGHER 7K DELIVERY SINGAPORE FOR TRIPS TO CHINA AND AROUND 9K FOR DIRECTION INDIA - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
This week started slower with London on bank holiday Monday. The south east Asian market seems to have been taking a breather with chart ...
Thursday, 01 September 16
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.33 PERCENT MORE COAL IN JULY
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1.10 bill ...
Wednesday, 31 August 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET MANAGED TO FIND FURTHER SUPPORT DURING THE LAST DAYS OF THE SUMMER SEASON - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market managed to find further support during the last days of the summer season, with the BDI climbing above 700 last Friday, reachin ...
Tuesday, 30 August 16
THE SUDDEN SURGE IN IRON ORE TRADE HAS CREPT UP ON THE MARKET THIS PAST WEEK - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The sudden surge in Iron ore trade has crept up on the market this past week bringing about a change in the prospects for Capes. Continued increase ...
Monday, 29 August 16
THE 5000 GAR THERMAL COAL INDEX HAS STRENGTHENED BY 9.90% SINCE JANUARY
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing upward and it is expected to ral ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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