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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 09 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED SLIGHTLY TO 16.1 MMST, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Friday, 09 September 16
CAPESIZE: THE SENTIMENT IS SOLID, SAYS FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A quiet start with Labour Day celebrations in the United States leading to very little being reported from the Atlantic basin. Supramaxe ...
Thursday, 08 September 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS IN JUNE 2016 UP 29% COMPARED TO MAY 2016, SAYS EIA
U.S. coal production in August was 71 million short tons (MMst), which is 6 MMst (9%) higher than in the previous month and 12 MMst (14%) lower tha ...
Wednesday, 07 September 16
WEEKLY MARKET (TANKER) REPORT - INTERMODAL
What goes around comes around! The Shipping industry is infamous for its seasonality and cyclicality and the tanker sector is no exception to these ...
Tuesday, 06 September 16
INDO GOVT. SETS SEPTEMBER COAL REFERENCE PRICE AT US$ 63.93 PER TON; JUMP 20.17% YTD
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since April 2015. The government declared benchmark prices f ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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