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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 19 September 16
AFTER YEARS OF COMA, COAL BECOMES THE MOST ATTRACTIVE COMMODITY RIGHT NOW
COALspot.com: China boosted coal imports in recent months. The Chinese government’s drive to cut over capacity pushed up the demand for therm ...
Monday, 19 September 16
THE CAPE INDEX WAS UP 7.28% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities declined and ending in a slightly negative note this past ...
Friday, 16 September 16
GLOBAL SHIPBUILDING: THE CHALLENGE TO REMAIN 'ACTIVE' - CHRISTOPHER PEARCE, CLARKSONS
The number of ‘active’ shipyards globally has more than halved since the start of 2009, falling to around 400 shipyards at the start of ...
Friday, 16 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED 6.2% TO 15.1 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.1 million short ton ...
Thursday, 15 September 16
INDONESIA MAY FACE A COAL CRISIS BY 2035!
COALspot.com: Indonesia is the world’s fourth-largest coal producer and the world’s largest thermal coal exporter may face a coal crisi ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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