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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 September 16
CAPESIZE: LAST WEEK ENDED ON A VERY STRONG NOTE MAINLY DRIVEN BY A ACTIVE BRAZIL MARKET - FEARNLYS
Supramax
With holidays in the eastern hemisphere beginning this week, the sentiment and activity level has been decreasing.
In the Pacific, ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET REACHED LEVELS LAST SEEN BACK IN 2015 - INTERMODAL
In an earlier column we commented that we are undergoing “shipping’s new (ab)normal” with constrained financing, shift in demand ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.48 MMT OF COAL IN AUGUST; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE WAS $AU 83.33
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU $1,040.4 ...
Tuesday, 13 September 16
CAPESIZE: BIG STRENGTH SEEN IN THE MARKET THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize - Big strength seen in the market this week, with an upbeat in sentiment amongst owners helping pull up rates fairly quickly and many hold ...
Monday, 12 September 16
THE CAPE MARKET HAS GAINS ON WEEK; THE CAPE INDEX SETTLING AT 1566 POINTS ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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