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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 06 September 16
CAPESIZE: THE PACIFIC BASIN WAS THE MAIN REGION KEEPING UP WITH THE POSITIVE SUPPORT - ALLIED
Capesize
Despite some mixed feelings being seen early on in the week, we managed to see a positive week-on-week close on Friday with some positiv ...
Monday, 05 September 16
INDIA BECAME ADARO'S SECOND LARGEST MARKET IN 1H' 16
COALspot.com: The Wara Balangan blend product has been well received by customers in China and India - AI
In the second quarter of 2 ...
Monday, 05 September 16
POOR FREIGHT RATES DESPITE STRONG DEMAND GROWTH FROM CHINA - BIMCO
Demand
The dry bulk commodity imports into and exports out of China we have seen in the first half of 2016 are very positive – and nothing ...
Monday, 05 September 16
FREIGHT RATE FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week except ...
Friday, 02 September 16
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL EXPORTS TO DECLINE BY 19 MMST IN 2016 TO 55 MMST
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.3 million sho ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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