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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 September 16
EIA SEES U.S. COAL WEEKLY OUTPUT INCREASE
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Thursday, 22 September 16
CHINA IS THE PRICE-SETTING COUNTRY FOR GLOBAL THERMAL COAL
COALspot.com: China has been the driver of global coal growth since 2009. When China became the largest coal importer in 2011, the country also has ...
Thursday, 22 September 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE ACHIEVING AROUND $7000 FOR A TRIP WITH SINGAPORE DELIVERY VIA INDONESIA TO CHINA
Supramax
A slow start to the week in the Supramax segment in the Atlantic with not much being reported.
In the Blacksea Supramaxes are getti ...
Wednesday, 21 September 16
THE CAPESIZE MARKET HAS BEEN ON A RALLYING TREND SINCE THE END OF AUGUST - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The Capesize market has been on a rallying trend since the end of August, fuelled mainly by the chase by traders to pre-stock before the typical pi ...
Wednesday, 21 September 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
Amidst a challenging dry bulk and tanker market, very little time has been spent on the offshore industry developments during the past couple of ye ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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