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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 03 October 16
THERMAL COAL PRICE SHOOTS UP AND MADE THEIR VERTICAL MOVE IN 5 YEARS; PRICE RALLY CONTINUES
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 03 October 16
DRY-BULK SHIPPING FREIGHTS SLIDE IN SOFTENING SPOT MARKET
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline slightly and ending in a negative note this past ...
Friday, 30 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 2.3% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is la ...
Thursday, 29 September 16
FREIGHT RATES MIGHT CONTINUE TO SLIDE NEXT WEEK DUE TO HOLIDAYS IN CHINA
Supramax
Flat start to week followed by a slight gain in rates for Supramaxes, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
According to Fear ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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