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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 28 September 16
WITHOUT A DOUBT FREIGHT RATES HAVE MOVED UP A BIT TO HEALTHIER LEVELS - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching Q4, it is interesting to perform a review of the last nine months with respect to the second-hand prices of Supramax and Pana ...
Tuesday, 27 September 16
THE CAPESIZE RATE OF INCREASE HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE, UP 39% W/W AND 123% MONTH TO DATE - ALLIED
The Dry bulk market has seen a rare shine in its performance as the capesize sector manages to rally at an unprecedented rate compared to its perfo ...
Monday, 26 September 16
COAL PRICES HAVE BEEN MOVING STEADILY HIGHER AFTER YEARS OF DECLINE
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 26 September 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS FIRM; ALL SEGMENTS WERE UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
Friday, 23 September 16
"COLLATERAL LIES" DO NOT NECESSARILY UNDERMINE AN INSURANCE CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
An insured was not precluded from recovering under an insurance policy even though it had made a false statement during t ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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