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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 October 16
CEYLON SHIPPING CORPORATION HAS TAKEN DELIVERY OF COAL CARRIER MV.CEYLON PRINCESS
Sri Lanka’s Ceylon Shipping Corporation (CSC) has taken delivery of its second newly built bulk carrier for the transportation of coal to pow ...
Friday, 07 October 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALLED AN ESTIMATED 540.5 MMST; DOWN 21.9% Y-O-Y, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 06 October 16
SHIPS IN PACIFIC ACHIEVE JUST ABOVE $10K DAILY FOR A BRAZIL ROUND VOYAGE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slower week with limited activity due to holidays in the East. Mixed feelings within different markets, with slight downturn in Pacific ...
Wednesday, 05 October 16
OPEC TO SHUT OFF MORE THAN 6 PERCENT OF ITS PRODUCTION; MIXED FEELING AMONGST TRADERS - ALLIED
OPEC recent accord to shut off more than 6 percent of its production this past week has been met with mixed feeling amongst traders. As we mo ...
Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together produ ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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