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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 18 October 16
PANAMAX: A FAIRLY POSITIVE END TO THE WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Things seemed to be moving sideways during the first half of the week, with resistance being felt as owners tried to resist any further ...
Monday, 17 October 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS SOFTENED IN ALL SEGMENTS THIS PAST WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline slightly and ending in a negative note this past ...
Friday, 14 October 16
SUPRAMAXES: DELIVERY SINGAPORE ARE SETTLING AROUND HIGH 6K'S FOR COAL TRIPS TO CHINA VIA INDO - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Wait and see attitude prevailing all over the market.
There have been several fresh cargoes, which have been efficiently covered by ...
Friday, 14 October 16
U.S. SHIPPED 3.3 MMST COAL IN JULY 2016; DECLINE 40% M/M
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.6 million short ton ...
Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Ar ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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