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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 October 16
DRY BULK:MARKET ENDS WEEK WITH MIXED REACTIONS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities ending with mixed direction as Cape and BDI was declined ...
Thursday, 20 October 16
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 16.97 PERCENT MORE COAL IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,216.7 m ...
Thursday, 20 October 16
A SUPRAMAX HAVE BEEN FIXED AT $12,500 FOR A INDIA TO BANGLADESH TRIP - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A bit more activities with modest upturn in rates.
According to Fearnleys weekly report, US Gulf trip to Skaw-Passero has seen cons ...
Wednesday, 19 October 16
THE SHIPPING MARKET IS IN A WAIT AND SEE MODE - INTERMODAL
We are now heading towards the end of a rather volatile 2016 for the dry bulk segment. During the last 10 months there were never any clear indicat ...
Tuesday, 18 October 16
COAL PRICES KEPT CLIMBING
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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