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Wednesday, 11 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE DERMATIS
 A new year has dawned upon us and it sure promises to be an exciting one which makes it practically impossible to resist the challenge of making a forecast –especially when asked to do the first insight of the year. And given the range of variables ahead, let make it a bit harder; let’s take a closer look on the DRY sector which remains at the forefront of volatility and the inherent liquidity of assets creates paradoxical examples faster than we can justify why it happened.
Many were anticipating a sluggish start to the year due to a strong Q4, markets taking a step back as they digest Trump taking over on 20Jan17 and of course the “inevitable seasonal lullaby” caused by the upcoming Chinese New year -28th January. However, activity levels and appetite for new business thus far point to a different direction. Sentiment remains strongly positive and literature around a much healthier 2017 is already stacking up. Negative fleet growth, lower than expected actual orderbook, higher commodity prices, focus on higher infrastructure spending globally and increasing pressure on older tonnage through a tighter regulatory framework are becoming the flavor of the month and it’s becoming impossible to spot even ONE person that believes that 2017 will be similar –let alone worse- than 2016. Yes, sentiment plays a huge role but before talking about a self-fulfilling prophecy have we really sailed away from Scylla and Charybdis?
With Dow Jones, Nasdaq and other indices worldwide trading at historical highs, it is rather worrisome that Bankers observe such procrastination from investors towards new offerings as well as increasing criticism over the production potential of existing stocks. Most pundits believe that the commodity and energy post-election rally to be largely overvalued and we could soon see its flipside. Continuous delays on the Basel III implementation schedule seem to be short-term “wins” for the banking system but, truth be told, access to finance is not going to change until we see the new system being in place.
2016 was a record-setting year in the post-Lehman year in terms of sales transacted as well as asset value appreciations across all sizes but on the contrary demo activity –especially in the second half of 2016- dropped considerably and, god forbid, if deliveries-demolition balance looks as bad as the graph below, then we might reach a new dead-end. If you add to the equation a rising appetite and itchy fingers lining up for newbuilding orders due to low prices and Tier II regulations, it makes for an explosive “cocktail”.
Finally, don’t forget that when it comes to dry bulk Shipping in the new millennium, the determining factor was, is and will be China and they have two important milestones coming up -ahead of the implementation of its newly voted environmental tax law. Firstly, the timeline and extent of adopting to Basel III regulations and secondly, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing, China in the autumn of 2017. The new 5-year-plan is the focal point of the Chinese economy and hopefully the trigger event for a truly happy year.
All in all, the industry has certainly found a footing BUT we need to remain rational, stay the course of recovery and manage expectations based on the fundamentals that have brought us to the present.
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 26 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
If the finale of a thriller movie finds the leading actor successfully surviving after all the sacrifices he has made, the audience presumes this t ...
Tuesday, 25 October 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES MARCH HIGHER CONTINUES
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Tuesday, 25 October 16
THINGS ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO IMPROVE AS CORRECTIONS ARE MADE - ALLIED
It seems as though left, right and centre, all we see nowadays is the word “restructuring”.
There is restructuring amongst bankers ...
Monday, 24 October 16
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 0.78 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 780,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
Monday, 24 October 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 3.2% TO 16 MMST WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16 million short tons ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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